a) The percentage of southern seats in the house held by democrats has been steadily decreasing for centuries.
b) Southern voters elected Democratic candidates to Congress more frequently than they elected Democratic candidates to the presidency because of incumbency advantage. Even though southerners started to lean Republican in choosing presidential candidates they felt safer keeping their incumbents, who were often Democrats, in the house. Another reason is differences between state and national parties which are independent of each other. To get votes Democratic congressional candidates responded to local interests, whereas Democratic presidential candidates responded to a national constituency.
c) Parties have changed in composition with respect to Catholics and women. Catholics have become less democratic voters over the years. Women have become more supportive of Democratic candidates and have become a large part of the Democratic voting population.
http://apcentral.collegeboard.com/apc/public/repository/ap10_us_govt_politics_q3.pdf
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